CHARLESTON, W.Va. — Former state Supreme Court Justice Elliot “Spike” Maynard’s effort to oust Rep. Nick Rahall, D-W.Va., is not only the first serious test of the 17-term congressman in a generation. It’s also a pivotal race in a Democratic stronghold dominated by the state’s top industry and could be a bellwether of the state’s economic and political future. The race pits Maynard, a controversial Democrat-turned-Republican, against Rahall, an entrenched Democrat in a district increasingly willing to vote Republican. West Virginia, with a 2-1 Democratic registration edge, has been leaning right since 2000, when state voters helped elect George Bush to the presidency and put a Republican, Shelley Moore Capito, in the state’s Second District congressional seat for the first time in many years. In 2004 the state supported Bush over Democrat John Kerry and re-elected Capito. In 2008, it went for Sen. John McCain, R-Ariz., over Barack Obama for president. Now, Rahall and Rep. Alan Mollohan, D-W.Va., in the First District both face serious challenges from both Republicans and/or conservative Democrats while Capito is opposed only by a politically unknown Democrat. Voters nationwide are believed to be increasingly unhappy with President Obama’s economic policies and health care reform effort. Adding to such negative feelings in this state is the perception that his administration’s environmental policies are anti-coal. Before they face each other, Maynard has to face three primary opponents and Rahall a single challenger from his own party, but insiders expect the two veteran politicians to walk away with their respective party’s nominations. The single largest factor in the race is likely to be how southern coalfield voters express anxiety about the coal industry when they go to the polls. Do voters trust Rahall, who is currently chairman of the House Committee on Natural Resources, to be able to work within the party for them? Or, are they willing to abandon the Democratic party for Maynard because he opposes an environmental crackdown that could end mountaintop removal and other large-scale surface mining? But there are other questions. Will the election somehow center on other issues, like increasing federal budget deficits and health care? Those are issues that Maynard, a lifelong conservative, also plans to raise. Or will it end up being about something else entirely, like a series of tit-for-tat character assaults, which both men may be susceptible to? For now, the election seems to be about coal. In announcing his candidacy, Maynard positioned himself as the person able to fight what he called the Obama administration’s “war on coal” and to protect the industry and its jobs. Rahall’s office had not returned a request for comment on the race by Tuesday evening. Two major players on Tuesday said they would continue to back Rahall. The United Mine Workers is unlikely to change horses. “I suspect that we will, as we have done in the past, be looking very seriously at Congressmen Rahall in terms of an endorsement,” said Phil Smith, director of communications for the UMW. “He clearly has been, and in our opinion will continue to be, the best friend coal miners have in that district.” Smith added, “I think congressman Rahall has a demonstrable record of service to the people in that district, and his apparent opponent just doesn’t have that.” On the industry side, at least one major energy player is supporting Rahall. CONSOL Energy’s political action committee helps candidates who support what the coal and natural gas company considers effective energy policy. “In this particular case our support would be behind Nick Rahall,” said Joseph Cerenzia, a company spokesman. It is not yet clear how Maynard, a longtime friend of Massey Energy chief Don Blankenship, might be helped or hurt by the connection. Maynard lost his seat on the Supreme Court largely due to the publication of photos showing Maynard and Blankenship dining together on the French Riviera. Maynard initially had declined to recuse himself from a multi-million dollar case involving Massey, but he did so after the photos surfaced. Maynard said this week that Blankenship is the head of a Fortune 500 company that employs thousands of people in the Third District. “I don’t know how you exclude somebody like that from the process,” he said. On Monday, Maynard also said he had “never had a conversation” with Blankenship about contributing to the campaign or being involved in a political action committee to go after Rahall. When it comes to personalities, the race could get crowded. It could be about Rahall, Maynard, Blankenship or Obama and other Washington Democrats. Rahall announced his support for Obama early, in March 2008, two months before the state Democratic primary, and Republicans may try to use that to their advantage in a district that voted for Obama’s opponent. By comparison, Sen. Jay Rockefeller, D-W.Va., had announced his support for Obama a week earlier, but Sen. Robert Byrd, D-W.Va., waited until May and Gov. Joe Manchin until June to back Obama. Republicans also are likely to try to tie Rahall to House Speaker Nancy Pelosi. They already have begun saying that Rahall votes with the speaker nearly all of the time. Rahall votes the party line 96.9 percent of the time, according to a Washington Post survey. The ranking does not include missed votes. But political insiders also wonder if Maynard, a Mingo County native, now is known to voters mostly because of the photos with Blankenship. “Until all that came up with Blankenship, (Maynard) was down there, he was a nice guy, he was amiable when you talk to him, but I hadn’t heard much about him,” said Delegate Sally Susman, D-Raleigh. Susman questions how much influence coalfield politics will have in a district that also elected a liberal like her and is home to a contingent of environmentalists. Delegate Daniel Hall, D-Wyoming, said Maynard stands as good a chance as anybody at beating Rahall, but Hall still isn’t sure the former justice can pull it off. “What I’m afraid of is he can’t make a very good run for it unless he goes negative, and regardless of what side you’re on, for or against him, most people don’t like negative campaigns,” Hall said. “Sometimes it’s effective, but it kind of leaves a bad taste in your mouth.” He also points out that Rahall is “on the scene” in the district. He appears at a lot of community events and has an office known for helping constituents deal with problems. Rahall, who has served for 34 years, has survived 16 election cycles. “In all reality the campaign may not have a lot of sway one way or the other,” Hall said. “People are either going to support Nick Joe Rahall or not. After 30 years, people are going to have an opinion of him.” Susman said she’s just not sure people are going to get up and go to the polls to vote against Rahall. “I think a lot of people are a little mad at him now, but I don’t think they’d trade him for Maynard,” Susman said. Republicans think there is evidence that Democrats are apathetic about reelecting Rahall and that Republicans and Independents will turn out to help unseat him. Since he was first elected in 1976, Rahall’s toughest race came in 1990, when he was still representing West Virginia’s fourth congressional district, which has since been eliminated because of population declines. Rahall won that year, but the margin was surprisingly thin. He edged out Republican challenger Marianne Brewster by only 3,000 votes. In this year’s primary, Rahall also faces a Democrat, Bruce Barilla of Bluefield. Maynard faces three Republican opponents, Lee A. Bias of Barboursville, Marty Gearheart of Bluefield and Conrad G. Lucas II of Huntington.