That is the message in a May 2009 Kentucky Long-Term Policy Research Center study I mentioned to you last week that covers trends in college attendance in Kentucky and the U.S. from 1993-97 and 2003-2007. And it is a frustrating message because Kentucky set a very serious goal 12 years ago of doubling its number of college graduates in the state to around 791,000 bachelor’s degree holders by 2020, meaning our state needs another 211,000 degree holders within the next 11 years. If middle class access to higher education in Kentucky is as limited as it appears to be nationally we might not meet that goal.
Lucky for us, based on the study, Kentucky seems to be faring better than we might imagine. The study reveals that since the mid 1990s, our state has seen an increase in the probability rate for college attendance among 18 to 24 year olds compared to the national rate across all income levels, including the middle income level. From 2003-07, the probability of 18-24 year olds attending college in Kentucky (the typically college age range) indicated that Kentucky had gained on the national average. Kentucky’s probability rate was 39 percent over that four-year period compared to a U.S. rate of 44 percent, but don’t let the higher U.S. rate fool you. The study states that the difference in the rates is not statistically significant, “indicating Kentucky’s gain on the nation relative to its standing 10 years earlier.”
We can also assume from the study that the probability of the 18 to 24 year old group attending college using income as the only determinant was greater from 2003-07 in Kentucky than the U.S. as a whole, although only in the highest income group. The rate was 51 percent in Kentucky versus 50 percent nationally for the higher income group. Kentucky was only three percentage points behind the 36 percent national probability rate for attendance by those in the middle income bracket—much higher than Kentucky’s 26 percent rate 10 years before but only three percent higher than the national rate 10 years before.
One thing we should not assume from all this data is that Kentucky’s college attendance rate have been unaffected by annual tuition increases at Kentucky colleges and universities. “It is possible that the gains would have been even higher without the large increases in the cost of college over the last several years,” the study states. We need to do something about our high tuition rates, for the sake of our families, our educational system and our state’s future.
We should also not assume that family income is always a “sure thing” when it comes to determining access to college whether nationally or in Kentucky. From the study, and I quote: “The lowest and middle income students have a lower likelihood of attending college than the highest income students,” it says, “with middle income students actually having a lower probability of attending college than those from the lowest income group.” One of the three key findings of the study was that family income often determines whether one attends college. Because middle class families have higher incomes than lower income families, you would think that middle class student would have a higher probability of going to college than lower income students. But the fact is that because of economic burdens and lack of opportunities that lower income students might have for education, a discrepancy remains.
If you would like to read more about the study titled “Trends in Postsecondary School Attendance, Kentucky and the United States, 1993-97 to 2003-07” from KLTPRC, you can access it on the Internet at http://www.kltprc.net/policynotes/pn0028_college_affordability.pdf . Other data about state policy important to Kentucky can also be found on the site www.kltprc.net .
I hope everyone is enjoying the summer, and I look forward to sharing with you again next week.
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